emmadilemma reviewed Conflict in Ukraine by Rajan Menon
Looking forward through looking back
4 stars
Written as an explainer for the Russian annexation of Crimea, "Ukraine in Conflict" also acts as a preface to the current larger invasion, recounting the many axes on which the conflict operates.
All of the talking points are there - NATO and its existential threat to Russia in the post-Cold War order, tables of European defense spending and natural gas consumption, and something we don't hear about anymore, often-rampant corruption and dysfunction in the Ukrainian government.
The book necessarily ends without having insight into the current times, but it does offer three futures: protracted regional conflict, full-country Russian invasion, and the scenario it simply calls "Ukraine Wins," seen as so dubious that it merits barely a sentence. The authors absolutely didn't anticipate a future wherein the Ukrainian government would become legitimate or respected. (Somewhere there's a book to be written on media figures guiding nations through world conflict.)
In this …
Written as an explainer for the Russian annexation of Crimea, "Ukraine in Conflict" also acts as a preface to the current larger invasion, recounting the many axes on which the conflict operates.
All of the talking points are there - NATO and its existential threat to Russia in the post-Cold War order, tables of European defense spending and natural gas consumption, and something we don't hear about anymore, often-rampant corruption and dysfunction in the Ukrainian government.
The book necessarily ends without having insight into the current times, but it does offer three futures: protracted regional conflict, full-country Russian invasion, and the scenario it simply calls "Ukraine Wins," seen as so dubious that it merits barely a sentence. The authors absolutely didn't anticipate a future wherein the Ukrainian government would become legitimate or respected. (Somewhere there's a book to be written on media figures guiding nations through world conflict.)
In this book's reading, Ukraine was doomed to be under-governed and fractured along the frontier that we now know, if not militarily, then culturally and politically.
I've heard bits of these things over the last dozen years, but not comprehensively or in one place. It makes sense out of where we are now, to the extent there's sense to be had.